That's the view of Joseph Glauber of the International Food Policy Research Institute. He considers the fear the war would lead to a surge in food prices – and a dramatic worsening of world hunger.
A Ukrainian farmer checks the wheat in a field in the Donetsk region. Despite fears that the Russia's war on Ukraine would have an devastating impact on UKraine's massive grain exports, the outcome hasn't been as dire as predicted.A Ukrainian farmer checks the wheat in a field in the Donetsk region. Despite fears that the Russia's war on Ukraine would have an devastating impact on UKraine's massive grain exports, the outcome hasn't been as dire as predicted.
The result, said Glauber, is that in the first couple of months after Russia invaded,"food prices were quite high and quite volatile. Wheat futures jumped almost 60%. Corn and soybeans were up 15 to 20% in the first week or so." Altogether the export bans"affected somewhere around 15% of agricultural trade at one point," said Glauber."And that only exacerbated the price volatility."Yet, says Glauber,"It could have been so much worse."
But the biggest bumper crop by far was in Russia – which lucked into a record-breaking 22% boost in its wheat production over the prior year. And while many nations have imposed sanctions on Russia in retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine, they have chosen to exempt Russia's export of food products."It means that Russia is profiting, in fact, from a war that they're largely responsible for," he said.By contrast Ukraine's crops have taken a big hit.
The arrangement is hardly ideal, said Glauber. It requires each country to send inspectors to certify that the ships are only carrying grain."And Ukraine claims that Russia hasn't set enough inspectors" – causing costly delays that cut into Ukraine's profits.
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