There was a major problem with the government's economic data all last year, and we only now figured it out.
The most striking thing about these newly revised numbers is that the labor market appears to have been more or less insensitive to the state of the pandemic last year. Job growth tailed off modestly in September when the delta wave was peaking, but otherwise, it’s basically impossible to spot COVID’s impact with the naked eye. Harvard economist Jason Furman told me he thinks the same holds for most of the economic data from last year.
So this is yet another reminder that all knowledge is tentative and economic narratives are often fragile artifacts of bad data. On the other hand, the labor market appears to have been brushing off the pandemic for months now. You win some, you lose some.
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