The emissions of aviation will be priced, the cost of aviation will go up, and that's part of why my projection of aviation growth is flat through 2100.
taxes, often aligned with gasoline taxes. And Canada often appears to think like the EU, with provinces such as Alberta providing tax rebates on ATF purchased for international destinations. Ontario, by comparison, still taxes aviation fuel for international destinations at around $0.08 per US gallon .
And the other weird thing about this is that the US actually taxes aviation fuel more than other countries and doesn’t give the money back if the planes are leaving the country. Momentarily, the US’ aviation fuel policies are ahead, even if still completely misaligned with the scale of their negative externalities.
The EU has a had a movement for years to both normalize aviation fuel taxes across the EU countries, but also include them in the EU emissions trading scheme, the ETS. Yes, that’s right, the EU actually gives enormous ETS allowances away to aviation, enabling them to dodge the currently. As part of the EU’s plan to reduce carbon emissions by 55% by 2030, they have proposed reducing the allowances starting in 2024 down to zero allowances in 2027.
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