Though many scientists say it’s inevitable that the world will overshoot 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, the global climate talks unfolding in Egypt are bound to the target
But that target, set seven years ago when there was less carbon in the sky, will almost certainly be overshot.
That number—1.5 C—promises to be the focus of next year’s climate talks too, even as it slips further away. The 1.5 C threshold is swiftly approaching. The world has already warmed by about 1.3 C, and studies suggest temperatures could cross 1.5 C within a decade. Yet many scientists privately believe the world has already hit the point of no return. And some say it’s time to make that message public.
“Academics cannot fix decades of delay, but we can help societies take the radical action now needed to limit even worse outcomes,” the letter states. ‘A disconnection’ If so many scientists around the world believe overshooting 1.5 C is a foregone conclusion, why aren’t more of them publicly saying so?For one thing, he said, there are concerns that publicly declaring it a failure could dampen global climate action. Once the world has missed a major target, it could become easier for some people to simply give up.
“I think it’s simply a disconnection between what is technically possible but is not politically possible,” said Marta Rivera-Ferre, a scientist with INGENIO, a joint research institute of the Spanish National Research Council and the Polytechnic University of Valencia. Rivera-Ferre also signed Scientist Rebellion’s open letter.
Yet experts like Peters argue that it’s just as important to communicate to the public how likely it is that the world will miss this target. Many of the most vulnerable countries—particularly small island nations faced with severe threats from rising sea levels—began to push for more ambitious goals.
“It is almost inevitable that we will at least temporarily overshoot 1.5,” Jim Skea, an energy expert at Imperial College London and co-chair of the IPCC working group that prepared the report, said when presenting its findings in a virtual presentation in April.It’s technically possible to surpass a climate target and bring global temperatures back down later.
The possibility of overshooting 1.5 C complicates the question of when, exactly, the world should admit the target was missed.
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