One of the best indicators for recession is an inverted yield curve.
... [+]One of the best indicators for a U.S. recession is an inverted yield curve. As indicators of U.S. recessions go, it’s among the best, historically speaking. That means the markets watch the shape of the yield curve closely.An inverted yield curve occurs when the yield curve has a ‘downward’ slope to it. That means that yields on shorter term bonds exceed those on longer-term bonds. For example if the 2 year yield rises above the 10 year yield on U.S.
In March 2021, the spread was triple that. So we could be fairly close to an inverted yield curve, especially because the speed of flattening in 2021 so far has been rapid.Part of the driver for a potential inverted yield curve is Fed tightening. The Fed currently expects to life rates in 2022, perhaps by a lot, and the markets agree..
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