Three scenarios for how the ECB could normalise monetary policy and its implications for EUR/USD – ING

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Three scenarios for how the ECB could normalise monetary policy and its implications for EUR/USD – ING
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Three scenarios for how the ECB could normalise monetary policy and its implications for EUR/USD – ING ECB EURUSD Banks

“The ECB ends net asset purchases in the second quarter of 2022 and starts hiking interest rates by 25bp in September with another 25bp in December. We expect only two additional rate hikes, bringing the refi rate to 1.0% by the end of 2023, with no further hikes in 2024. Given the fact that the market virtually prices three 25bp hikes from the ECB this year – we look for EUR/USD to trace out a 1.05-1.10 range, ending the year at 1.10.

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