Three theories of how this bull market will go off the rails

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Three theories of how this bull market will go off the rails
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Demand is brisk for an account of all the ways investors have lost their minds.

The 2008 financial crisis hit during millennials’ formative years — creating habits and fears that have kept many away from 2019’s stock market gains.

By the way, as big as the FANG stocks are, the S&P 500’s weighting methodology is not the reason for its success over the years. Since bottoming in 2009, an equal-weighted version of the benchmark has returned 605% including dividends. That’s 80 points more than the classic market-cap weighted index.The stock market has ceased to be a report card on the broad health of American commerce and instead is being manipulated by the Federal Reserve.

Just as many find the theory preposterous. Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, told “QE conspiracists” on twitter that he doesn’t see the connection. Dennis DeBusschere, Evercore ISI’s head of portfolio strategy, says the relationship between changes in the Fed’s balance sheet and the S&P 500 is near zero, and the latest stock rally is consistent with improving economic data and earnings.

“After a big gain, you’ll see investors piling in and the momentum continues because of the fact that they say, ‘I may have missed out last year and it looks like it’s really running so I better get more money into equity markets,” said TIAA’s Gaffney. “Momentum, especially ETFs and index-type funds, have an impact.”

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