Most major weather models suggest a strengthening storm will move west across the Atlantic.
In the coming days, the nascent system will meander west through a relative minimum in wind shear, or a change of wind speed and/or direction with height. Wind shear can be pernicious and disruptive to a tropical system, knocking it off-kilter and inhibiting its organization. The lack of wind shear is a window of opportunity. It remains to be seen to what extent the clumping of downpours can take advantage of improving environmental conditions in the days ahead.
There’s an outside chance that the system could strengthen to become a high-end tropical storm or low-end hurricane and unleash strong to damaging winds, torrential rain and an ocean surge. Thereafter, it’s probable that the system would continue its westward journey into the Caribbean. That’s around the time when shear looks to fall off markedly, potentially promoting intensification.
Sea surface temperatures are acutely above average in the eastern Caribbean, but near to slightly below average in the western Caribbean. Still, areawide they’re at or above the roughly 82 degree threshold needed to support the growth and maturation of a tropical cyclone.Nicaragua and Honduras ought to pay close attention to what transpires with this system, but any possible arrival of inclement conditions wouldn’t occur until the beginning of July.
Assuming Bonnie forms in the “main development region” of the tropical Atlantic — which stretches through roughly the eastern two-thirds of the tropical North Atlantic several degrees north of the equator — it would be unusually early. Only three storms have formed in this zone during June previously, according to Phil Klotzbach, a tropical weather expert at Colorado State University.
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