The federal indictment has rendered Trump a weaker general election candidate, but done little to aid his primary rivals.
. Even if one posits that Quinnipiac’s poll is correct, and Biden currently leads Trump by 4 points nationally, it’s possible that Trump would still be poised to win the White House in 2024. After all, in 2020, Biden won the popular vote by 4.4 percentage points, and yet Trump came within 44,000 well-placed votes of assembling an Electoral College majority.
This reality doesn’t just make it harder for DeSantis & CO. to criticize Trump’s mishandling of classified documents. It also threatens to render Republican primary voters even less sympathetic to criticisms of Trump more generally. To attack a much-loved party leader is risky in any context; to do so at a time when such attacks align one with a deep-state plot to destroy that leader for daring to fight for Real Americans™ is even more perilous.
And yet it is also indispensable. The durability of Trump’s polling advantage in recent months makes it clear that nothing — not a federal indictment, nor a court finding
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