The coronavirus crisis has almost certainly ended the longest U.S. expansion on ...
BENGALURU - The coronavirus crisis has almost certainly ended the longest U.S. expansion on record and pushed the economy into the start of a short slump, according to analysts polled by Reuters who gave a median 80% chance of recession this year.
But that will not be enough to prevent a recession, even though economists for now appear to think the blow will be punishing but temporary, with most expecting at least a modest rebound in the second half of the year. The U.S. economy was expected to grow 0.7% in the current quarter, about half the rate predicted in a Reuters poll published one month ago, and well below the last actual reported rate of 2.1% for the last three months of 2019.
The median forecast for the worst-case scenario, was an economic contraction in the current quarter of 1.0% and then 6.0% in Q2.
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