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Better-than-expected US CPI data provided the catalyst for the recent USD advance, that now appears to be benefitting from an added safe haven boost, keeping the dollar at elevated levels. Due to the sheer robustness of US data , markets have had to revise estimates of Fed rate cuts in 2024 and now envision around two 25 basis point cuts this year.
The Aussie Dollar has not only retraced its recent advance but has continued to head lower, printing a new yearly low. The recent drop in risk sentiment, fueled by geopolitical uncertainty in the middle east and the prospect of delayed interest rate cuts in the US, is having an impact on the ‘high beta’ currency.
USD/JPY approaches 155.00, a level identified by the former top currency official, Mr. Watanabe as a possible area where officials may intervene. If the pair is allowed to trade higher from there, the 160 mark comes into focus as the level of resistance last seen in 1990. Bullish trade setups from here are fraught with risk and provide an unappealing risk-reward ratio given the extreme volatility that typically follows direct FX intervention . Levels to the downside include 152.00 and 150.
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