One computer model gives the Vegas-favorite Warriors just a 7% chance to win it all.
FiveThirtyEight's alternate model, which factors in Elo ratings , gives the Dubs a 16% chance of winning the Finals and bumps the C's up to a 47% chance.
So who's right? Well, for one, Vegas odds aren't a predictor of anything really — they're a reflection of how much betting has occurred on a particular team and how Vegas would like to direct future bets. An efficient market moves lines to 50-50 probabilities and they make money by charging you to make a bet.
On the other hand, the FiveThirtyEight computer model gives the Mavericks a 73% chance of beating the Warriors who 1) hold homecourt advantage , 2) are the consensus pick to beat the Mavericks by an overwhelming margin amongst NBA pundits, and 3) have four players on their team with three NBA championships apiece. The Warriors and Mavericks will find out starting Wednesday at 6 p.m. in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals in San Francisco.
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