A sputtering U.S. stock rally faces a double-dose of potentially market moving events next week: U.S. midterm elections and inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Nevertheless, the S&P 500 finished the week with a 4.6% loss, likely burning many bulls that had jumped aboard an October rally that lifted the index more than 8% from its lows. A break of the index’s Oct. 12 closing low would mark the fifth time this year that stocks have rallied by 6% or more only to reverse course and plumb fresh depths.Meanwhile, data from BoFA Global Research showed some $62.
"If we get lower inflation reading then you could get a relief rally based on that data,” said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. In that case, however, “markets will be more focused on higher probability of a recession." At the same time, analysts said a surprise win by Democrats in the Nov. 8 midterm election, which will determine control of Congress, could fuel concerns about more fiscal spending and inflation.in polls and betting markets and many analysts believe the likely result will be a split government, with GOP control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate for the second half of Democratic President Joe Biden's term.
have ushered in rather than on moves stemming from the vote itself: the S&P 500 has posted a positive return in the 12 months following all 19 midterm elections since World War Two, according to CFRA Research.
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