As the most important shopping period of the year approaches, some investors are betting shares of beaten-down consumer stocks will benefit if inflation keeps falling and retail sales stay strong.
The companies' shares are down 29.6% and 43.5% year-to-date, respectively.
"The consumer has been a pillar of strength this year, but as rates keep rising and the labor market slows, consumers will have no choice but to pull back on spending," the firm's economists wrote. The bank's analysts are underweight the consumer discretionary sector."Recession fears are so priced in to this group," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group. "If we have a mild recession ... they will do very well from here on out.
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