While the area recently saw a10-fold drop from the height of the omicron wave, health exerts warn that infections are still quite high and it is not yet known where the numbers will go next, which is critical.
While welcoming the 10-fold drop in COVID wastewater levels from the height of the omicron wave, epidemiologists warned that the level of risk and transmission is still quite high.
“This decline is real and is a real good thing,” said Scott Olesen, an epidemiologist at Biobot Analytics, the biotech firm that’s partnered with the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority to monitorThe measurements tend to bounce around, so experts look for trends that span several days. This past week, levels dipped below 1,000 in both the northern and southern part of the catchment area for several measurements before inching back over 1,000 again in the most recent data.
Wastewater measurements are seen as a leading indicator of what may be coming for COVID case counts. During the omicron wave, Olesen said, wastewater levels peaked about a week and a half before case counts crested. Case numbers are based largely on PCR tests, which can take time to process and are in limited supply.
“People are being less risky. They've been going out less. They have been making fewer contacts,” he said. “As that changes and people resume those contacts that they had before, we can expect the virus to come back. I don't think it would come back to the extent that it has, but we can expect cases to tick up again.”
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