An attempted coup was thwarted in the west African coastal nation of Guinea-Bissau last week, the latest in a string of attempted overthrows of governments in the region.
The former general speculated that the attack was carried out by people"from the underworld" and linked to his efforts to fight corruption and drug trafficking.
However, despite efforts to impose punitive measures and deter future overthrows, regional leaders, western allies and international bodies are struggling to contain a groundswell of support for military rule in West Africa. While Verisk Maplecroft does not expect African leaders to"fall like dominoes," Humphrey-Smith suggested that some of the region's aging and more autocratic leaders look more vulnerable, including those in Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Republic of Congo or Equatorial Guinea, all of whom have been in office for at least three consecutive terms.
Robert Besseling, CEO of specialist political risk firm Pangea-Risk, also noted in a report Tuesday that growing anti-French sentiment in post-colonial countries will"uproot Europe's counterinsurgency interests in the Sahel and create an opportunity for Russia and Turkey to step into the void."
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