Colorado is home to five of the 10 most sheltered counties in U.S., CoreLogic study predicts.
Rodney King heads up emergency management efforts in Conejos County and plans ways to protect residents from the worst-case scenarios. But when it comes to having to act on those plans, not much catastrophic happens in this off-the-beaten-path border region south of Alamosa.
The county was among the first in Colorado to record a severe pine beetle infestation years ago and wildfires remain a year-round risk. Last May, one of the larger ones in recent history, the, took about eight days to put out at a cost of $1.6 million, King said. But the fire didn’t destroy any buildings or claim any lives.
Some of that increase reflects the strong population gains along the Front Range and higher home values. Scientists attribute the increase in more extreme and damaging storms to. And while climate models have generated hand-wringing about what comes next if conditions continue to worsen, less attention is paid to “safe” zones, places like Conejos, which takes its name from the plentiful rabbits that Spanish-speaking settlers noticed.
To gauge how risk might change going forward, the study looked at different climate scenarios as determined by the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and modeled the more severe “8.5” scenario for its 2050 calculations. The study also estimated earthquake exposure, which isn’t directly linked to climate change, but could cause massive devastation in certain states like California.
The western half of Colorado stands out for how calm it is now and how calm it will remain when it comes to the risks associated with natural disasters.A lot of people have been moving to places like Florida and Texas, which face elevated risks from disasters. Damages from disasters are making their way into high insurance premiums, and over time, insurance coverage in certain parts of the country could become cost prohibitive or simply not available.
Mahmoud has extensively studied the structural damage caused during natural disasters and recently created a model for wildfires that takes into account 80 different parameters. When tested against thein Boulder County, which destroyed more than a thousand homes, it predicted with 73% accuracy what buildings would survive and which would burn, he said.
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