What 2021’s biggest upset elections tell us about the losing parties, via FiveThirtyEight:
But once again, to understand how each party won in a state that usually backs the other, we compared their vote share to Biden’s and Trump’s in the 2020 presidential election across precincts. In this case, we just looked at Perdue’s race against Ossoff, as that contest proved closer than Warnock’s against Loeffler’s .
, but the votes cast did not quite keep pace with presidential votes from 2020 . Ossoff lost more ground relative to the November presidential race in heavily pro-Biden precincts, meaning that Perdue improved on Trump’s margin in those precincts. In fact, if Perdue had also received Trump’s margin over Biden elsewhere, he would have won.
Simply put, Perdue lost the election in places where Trump did best. We cannot say for certain why he underperformed so substantially heavily pro-Trump precincts — whether the underperformance reflected. But because Ossoff did not see large gains relative to Biden in those precincts, it is reasonable to think Perdue’s problem was, at least in part, that many November Trump voters stayed home in January.
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