A study of how growing conditions will change in the next 30 years for three popular foods—coffee, cashews, and avocados—found a complex landscape of winners and losers
: a drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions that limits warming to 1.6°C , a moderate reduction that limits warming to 2.4°C , and a worst-case scenario where warming exceeds 4°C .
For cashews, declines varied widely. Some declines were drastic. In West Africa’s Benin, high annual temperatures were projected to drive a nearly 55 percent decline in land highly suited for growing cashews, even when emissions were slashed. Other countries saw just single digit declines if nothing further were done to mitigate climate change.
In Mexico, currently the top producer of the fruit, suitable avocado-growing conditions were expected to increase by anywhere from 66 to 87 percent, based on emissions emitted by 2050. How climate change will affect future food security needs more research, Hoffman says. For example, he says, climate change increases the amount and kind of pests that attack crops. The natural assumption may be that those crops will decline, but what if the number of the pests’ predators also increases? As some growing regions expand while others shrink, it’s challenging to predict the fates of specific food items.
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