Compared to stocks, it feels like we’re hopelessly behind when tracking home prices. That’s especially troublesome when housing’s status is so muddied as it is as 2023 starts.
Imagine watching the often volatile stock market more like the relative slow-motion tracking of home prices.
One yardstick was what I’ll call “real-time” – the last trading day of a month vs. a year earlier’s result. The other is the same 12-month math just using a three-month moving average of the Wilshire 5000. This is a rough replica of housing’s widely watched Case-Shiller indexes. But the pandemic era’s initial lockdowns crushed stocks. Economic unknowns pushed the real-time results to a 12% year-over-year loss by the end of March 2020. My 3-month average cooled to an 11% gain at the same moment.
And at the year’s end of 2020, as vaccines were on the way to dampen the pandemic’s health issues, stocks in real-time were up 18% for the year and my 3-month average was up 16%.
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