.FiveThirtyEight Super Tuesday preview: Bernie Sanders leads in the three New England states:
. These districts have the three highest median household incomes in Massachusetts — $84,000 a year or higher. Our model thinks Buttigieg has a shot to nab a delegate or two from these districts, but that Klobuchar is polling too low to do the same.
In a nutshell, if Biden and Bloomberg don’t do well in the 1st and 7th districts, or if Buttigieg and Klobuchar don’t do well in the Boston suburbs, then it’s a bad sign for their overall prospects in Massachusetts. On the other hand, if Biden and Bloomberg do better than expected in suburbia, or if Buttigieg and Klobuchar are competitive in the 1st and 7th districts, they might be on their way to stronger-than-expected showings statewide — perhaps even enough to qualify for statewide delegates.
gives Sanders a 3 in 5 chance of winning the Pine Tree State. The next-likeliest victor is Biden, with just a 1 in 8 chance. Bloomberg has a 1 in 10 chance, Warren has a 1 in 12 chance and Buttigieg has a 1 in 15 chance. On average, our model forecasts that 29 percent of Maine primary voters will opt for Sanders, 16 percent each for Biden and Bloomberg, 15 percent for Warren, 14 percent for Buttigieg, 5 percent for Klobuchar and 2 percent each for Steyer and Gabbard.
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