Is it really 'Bernie or bust' for most of his fans? Who is rallying behind Joe Biden? Explore our hub to find out
We estimate support for each candidate using a statistical method that combines Bayesian statistics with dynamic logistic regression and a Dirichlet distribution . The model aggregates polls over the course of the campaign, putting more weight on polls conducted recently, less on those with small sample sizes and accounting for “house effects”—the tendency for some polling firms to over- or underestimate support for certain candidates. We exclude polling firms that do not use rigorous methods.
We have produced demographic crosstabs using the past four weeks of polling data from YouGov, a polling firm. Analyses of voters’ preferences beyond their first-choice for the nomination come from the same micro-data, but our time-series graphs rely on data from the entire campaign. Richard Ojeda, a West Virginia state senator, also ran for the presidency but he dropped out of consideration on January 25th 2019. He is not included in this interactive.
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