Data suggest that one Democratic candidate would do better than others against the president in November
their first votes in this year’s presidential primaries at caucuses in Iowa on February 3rd. Their ultimate goal is to nominate a candidate who can beat Donald Trump in November. That will not be easy. Despite much political tumult and an impeachment trial, the president still has a clear path to re-election.
Democrats have thus placed a premium on selecting a candidate able to beat Mr Trump. Yet they disagree over who is best placed to do so. Candidates such as Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg have been at some points boosted and dogged by such questions of so-called “electability” over the course of the campaign.
Mr Trump may have benefited from this dynamic in 2016. According to the Co-operative Congressional Election Study , a 65,000-person poll overseen by Harvard University, voters thought Hillary Clinton was about twice as ideologically extreme as Mr Trump in 2016. This was due largely to his embrace of some positions considered unorthodox for Republicans, such as defending Social Security and Medicare.
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