A historical look at interest rates and inflation shows why a 7% 10-year Treasury yield can’t be ruled out
A Ned Davis strategist thinks it’s too early for investors to embrace the idea that benchmark U.S. borrowing costs have found a peak.
Higher interest rates can take the shine off highflying technology stocks by increasing borrowing costs and weighing on the value of potential future earnings. But Kalish also thinks it’s worth looking at historical averages, which show that a 10-year Treasury yield of 7.25% is “very defensible.” The Fed’s PCE index pegged yearly inflation at 3.4% in September, unchanged from the prior month but still above the Fed’s 2% yearly target.
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