The government inflation report being released Tuesday is expected to show that price acceleration in the United States remained chronically high in February, putting the Federal Reserve in an unusually tough position.
A worker organizes items at a Walmart Supercenter in North Bergen, N.J., on Feb. 9, 2023.
At the same time, inflation continues to run far above what the Fed wants. Economists have estimated that Tuesday’s report will show that consumer prices rose 0.4% from January to February, according to a survey of economists by the data provider FactSet. That would be slightly less than the increase from December to January but still too fast to be consistent with the Fed’s 2% annual inflation target.
If the Fed does pause its rate hikes this month, Hatzius predicted, it will likely resume them when it next meets in May. Ultimately, he still expects the Fed to raise its key rate, which affects many consumer and business loans, to about 5.4% this year, up from the current 4.6%.
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