If the rivalry between China and America goes badly, no other country, except perhaps Taiwan, has more to lose than Japan. But this also gives it great influence
Japan’s Self-Defence Forces , as its army is called, opened a small outpost on Yonaguni in 2016. It faced resistance, but opposition has since faded. Earlier this year, local voters elected Mr Itokazu, an advocate of expanding the military presence. Even some who were against have changed their tune. “I don’t think China will invade,” Mr Tasato says. “But with the current situation, you never know.” Now he would like his government to plan for refugees who might flee Taiwan in a conflict.
Although this strategy coalesced under Mr Abe, it is the culmination of a long evolution. After the war Yoshida Shigeru, a former prime minister, said Japan should shelter under the American security umbrella and focus on reviving its economy. Others, such as Kishi Nobusuke, Mr Abe’s grandfather, wanted to ditch the strictures of the American-imposed constitution and re-establish Japan as a military power. The Yoshida doctrine won. For decades, Japanese foreign policy was limited to economics.
One result of the new laws is more space to plan realistically. During the cold war, Japan and America had a combined operations plan for what to do in a conflict with the Soviet Union, but it was largely worthless because it considered only a scenario in which the Soviet Union invaded Japan alone, says Michishita Narushige, also of“The constitutional limit really distorted the scenario,” he says. No longer. Discussions about a clash with China are under way.
Yet “Japanese capability is not inconsequential”, says Sheila Smith, author of “Japan Rearmed”. The submarine fleet has grown from 16 to 22, making a difference to Chinese planning. Last year Japan and Australia agreed to let their forces operate in each other’s territory—the first such pact with a country other than America. Negotiations over a similar deal with Britain began after the recent visit of the aircraft-carrier.
More sensitive industries are girding for further divisions. Nakajima Norio, boss of Murata, a manufacturer of high-end electronic components that once counted both Apple and Huawei as big customers, reckons the worst case may mean developing separate supply chains or even separate legal entities to work for clients on both sides. Less sensitive industries continue to press ahead. Mr Yanai’s Uniqlo has just opened a flagship store in Beijing and plans to build 100 new stores in China every year.
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