There are few stronger patterns in American politics than the tendency for the ruling party to lose ground in the first mid-term elections after taking the White House WorldAhead
few stronger patterns in American politics than the tendency for the ruling party to lose ground in the first mid-term elections after taking the White House. In 2018 such a pattern produced a “blue wave” of backlash to Donald Trump’s presidency, and Democrats wrestled 40 seats from the Republicans. In 2022 Joe Biden is likely to oversee a similarly disappointing performance for his party. Such is the mid-term curse.
Several indicators point in this direction. The first is history. Between 1934 and 2018, according to the American Presidency Project at the University of California Santa Barbara, the party controlling the White House lost an average of 28 seats in the House of Representatives. They lost seats in all but three of the last 22 mid-term cycles, that is 86% of the time. The pattern is weaker in the Senate, where the ruling party lost an average of four seats since 1934.
Election-watchers should take one other indicator into account: polarisation. Polls show that voters are further apart ideologically, and less likely to swing between parties, than they used to be. As a result, large swings in the electorate’s support for the ruling party may be less likely than in the past. Add this factor into our model, and the Democrats’ predicted vote share rises by roughly half a percentage point to 48.5%—although uncertainty in the estimate also increases.
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