The decision by centrist Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) not to seek reelection is just the latest sign that the election could have a major impact on the Senate.
Sens. Kyrsten Sinema and Mitt Romney talk outside the U.S. Capitol on Aug. 4, 2022. Both senators have announced that they won't seek reelection this year. In the last presidential election, the Senate filibuster was a political flash point. Democrats were dreaming about what they could achieve after winning the White House and eliminating the 60-vote Senate requirement for significant legislation.
If not for Sinema’s steadfastness, in particular, the minority party might already be fully boxed out of Senate governance. When Democrats took only 50 Senate seats in 2021, it looked for a moment like their filibuster-smashing ambitions might be tempered. Not for long: In 2022, Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer to force sweeping changes to state voting laws on a party-line vote. That would have required changing Senate rules — the “nuclear option” — to overcome a GOP filibuster.
The next generation of Republican senators, who never knew a Senate before the filibuster started to erode, might not be as restrained.that if the GOP doesn’t eliminate the filibuster, Democrats will do it as soon as they get the chance, attaining a first-mover advantage. That argument will be a whole lot harder to rebut in a second Trump term after Democrats came so close to going nuclear in 2022 with the narrowest possible majority.
It may be that Sinema was just the tip of the iceberg of Democratic opposition to Schumer’s 2022 gambit and that institutional reluctance to change Senate rules is deeper than it appears. Perhaps it would be another Democratic senator, such as Chris Coons or Jon Tester , who would fall on his sword in a second Biden term and disappoint the party base.
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