Want to dramatically lower the risk of getting caught in the airport vortex? Timing is everything.
This trend plays out throughout the year, even during non-holiday periods. In July 2021 at the 30 largest airports in the United States, for example, roughly 85% to 90% of morning flights were on time. Comparatively, 65% to 70% of flights leaving between 3 p.m. and 8 p.m. were delayed, according to the Office of Aviation Consumer Protection, which uses Bureau of Transportation Statistics and data from the Transportation Security Administration .
When FlightAware crunched flight data for Thanksgiving week over the past 10 years, it found a clear pattern of flight delays ramping up sharply as the day progressed. Flights scheduled to depart around 5 p.m. experienced the most delays of all. On the busiest days — the Tuesday before and Sunday after Thanksgiving — there were roughly 50% more delays for 5 p.m. departures compared to noon departures.
So how can travelers diminish the risk of getting sucked into the delayed-flight vortex? Set your alarm clock. “We recommend booking the earliest flight available, so you’re less likely to be impacted by delays from earlier in the day,” says Damodaran. “If you’re booked on an afternoon flight and some earlier flight gets disrupted, you’re likely getting disrupted, too.”
If you have a choice between airports, it can be smart to choose the smaller option. “Our data suggests that aside from whether the flight relies on earlier segments, the number of concurrent departing flights can also be a strong indicator of delays,” says Damodaran. “This is more likely on busier travel days at larger airports.”
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