The proposal would apply to individuals with a net worth of $50 million or more, taxing their wealth at 1% annually.
That deficit, Lee said, is almost exactly the same amount that the tax is projected to raise annually.
Research on the subject is growing rapidly, but a clear consensus has yet to emerge, wrote Cristobal Young, a sociologist at Cornell, and Ithai Lurie, an economist at the U.S. Treasury in aIn 2018, Charles Varner and Cristobal Young, then both at Stanford’s Center on Poverty and Inequality, worked with Allen Prohofsky at California’s Franchise Tax board, looking at decades of California tax data.
The average number of people earning more than $1 million per year varies by about 10,000 people each year; net migration accounts for only about 50 to 120 people. The number of super-high earners California has each year, in other words, is almost entirely driven by other stuff; mostly “California residents growing into the bracket, or falling out of it again,” they wrote.
There’s a broader context to this research, teasing out the specific effects that taxes have on rich people moving, Varner said: California has grown its population of million-dollar earners overall. In 2009, that rarified group was about 75,000 strong , and by 2019 it was over 158,000 Varner said, drawing on data he received from the state’s tax board.examine the effect of the 2012 tax increase
Not every study of this issue has the same finding, said Saez, the Berkeley economist. But “if I were to summarize the work,” he said, “you will find that some people move to avoid paying higher taxes, but it is quantitatively small, meaning that the fraction of your tax base that you lose … typically quite small.”
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