China is preparing to set its most important GDP target since the global financial crisis. The country faces an unprecedented swathe of economic challenges, implying a significant downward revision to growth goals from the “above 6%” for 2021 to something that signals sustained pressure on bad debt. What President Xi Jinping chooses will measure his power to drag China onto a less wasteful development path.
The Chinese Communist Party has every reason to downgrade expectations as flattering comparisons to earlier Covid-19 damage fade. Beyond the threat from new variants, authorities in Beijing have initiated a broad campaign to curb financial risk in the property sector, which contributes between a quarter and a third of the country’s economic activity.
and others doesn’t collapse, including seeing that $2.5 trillion of pre-sold properties are completed to fend off a crash in consumer confidence. Retail sales, domestic tourism and the services sector have lagged under lockdown, but their malaise was offset somewhat by export demand for medical supplies and e-commerce. As trading partners normalise, however, that is unlikely to be sustained. As for productivity gains, they have beenRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comAfter just 4.9% expansion in the third quarter, a 2022 slowdown is widely expected. It could get ugly.
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