The heavy losses of ground troops that Russia might face in an invasion of Ukraine is why it wants the ability for uncrewed systems – remote-controlled robot warriors – to play an important part where the fighting is heaviest.
While less useful for mobile warfare over varied terrain, such robots may be used for initial reconnaissance, and in set-piece assaults on specific targets. These are the actions where Russia might otherwise take most casualties, and uncrewed systems could be employed where the fighting expected to be fiercest. However, at this stage it still seems unlikely that Russia can field a substantial enough robot fighting force for its needs.
While serial production of Uran-9s was supposed to start in 2018, we do not know how many have been delivered or fielded. Earlier this year it was announced that thewas to begin in 2022. Possibly, as with the Syrian deployment, field testing will be brought forward and conducted in a live environment.
Could armed ground robots, combined with air superiority and massed artillery, deliver victory against a powerful but inferior opponent, while keeping casualties down to a level that the Kremlin finds acceptable? It seems unlikely this time around, but the capability is growing as fast as Russian factories can churn out robots and robot war may not be far away. Just how far is a calculation that military planners, analysts and politicians will be weighing up in months and years to come.
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