Housing prices alone don’t mean a bubble. But many pros say it’s unlikely we will see a collapse in home prices, because unlike in 2008, there’s not an oversupply of housing. (via MarketWatch Picks)
Listen to a just a handful of the stats about the housing market, and it’s easy to see why there’s lots of chatter about whether or not we’re in a housing bubble. While mortgage rate are still holding near historic lows — you can still find 15-year rates near 2% and 30-year rates near 3% — home prices rose 19.5% in September year over year, according to data released by Case-Shiller at the end of November.
Housing prices alone don’t mean a bubble But many pros say it’s unlikely we will see a collapse in home prices, because unlike in 2008, there’s not an oversupply of housing, and instead there is an undersupply: The National Association of Realtors notes that the U.S. has underbuilt housing by at least 5.5 million units, and Hale estimates that we’re about 5 million units short.
In an October report, Goldman Sachs also predicted a continue rise in housing prices, writing: “The supply-demand picture that has been the basis for our call for a multi-year boom in home prices remains intact. Housing inventories remain historically tight, while homes remain relatively affordable despite the recent price increases, and surveys of home buying intentions remain at healthy levels. Our model now projects that home prices will grow a further 16% by the end of 2022.
For her part, Ivy Zelman, who called the 2005 market height, says that there are issues in the housing market, but doesn’t predict a full-on bubble popping and focuses concern on markets like Phoenix, Austin, Dallas and Houston. She told Bloomberg: “There are going to be corrections. And I think there are going to be corrections that are more pronounced if rates go higher.
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