The Ukraine crisis is here to stay.
A Ukrainian soldier on the front in Novotroitske, southern Ukraine on Wednesday, Feb. 2, 2022. President Vladimir Putin of Russia is increasingly staking his legacy on reversing Ukraine’s pro-Western shift. Even if he does not order an invasion this winter, he is making clear that he will keep the pressure on, backed by the threat of force, for as long as it takes to get his way.
“I expect we’ll have this crisis with us, in various forms, for all of 2022, at least,” said Andrei Sushentsov, dean of the school of international relations at MGIMO, the elite Moscow university run by the Russian Foreign Ministry.He described the current standoff as only the first step in a drawn-out Russian effort to force the West to agree to a new security architecture for Eastern Europe.
For the West, that approach could mean being drawn in to a new sort of “forever war” — a conflict consuming ever more time and treasure, with no clear exit strategy. The lesson of the chaotic Afghan withdrawal in the summer, to Putin, may have been that the U.S. has no stomach for a distant conflict — and Ukraine is distant to the U.S. but not to Russia.
Even if Macron, working with Biden and other Western leaders, were to help secure a temporary relaxation of tensions, Putin’s demands are so expansive — and his disdain of Ukraine’s pro-Western leaders so great — that analysts struggle to imagine a grand bargain being struck. Dmitri Kiselyov, one of Russian state television’s leading anchors, on Sunday detailed what would happen next: a nuclear war in which Russia, faced with its own destruction, would take the West with it.
“It’s safe to say that this is not a force posture that Russia is going to maintain for an extended period of time,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a research institute based in Arlington, Virginia. “They are entering a go/no-go posture, and they’re going to make that decision in the coming weeks.”
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