Investors are betting that geopolitics will follow its familiar pattern. Here's how it could diverge.
Market reaction to the terrifying violence in Israel suggests that investors view it as an important event but not necessarily as a geopolitical turning point. Oil prices are up, but still below last week’s peak. Treasuries are showing a modest flight to safety. Stocks wobbled and then turned up.
Start with Iran, and leave aside for now the question of whether it was involved in the planning of Hamas’s operation, because that speaks more to what the U.S. and Israel will do next. More important is to acknowledge that Iran has agency in this situation, and it can choose to escalate the situation, or not.
That is why analysts are closely watching for reactions from Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon. It didn’t join the initial attack on Israel. A choice to get involved now by attacking Israel would likely show intent to escalate, and the path from there would be difficult to predict. Whether the U.S. and Israel go further in directly addressing Iran “is a key source of escalatory risk,” said Brew. Iran has been exporting more oil lately, despite sanctions, and much of that oil is headed to Chinese refineries. Making a move on Iranian oil exports would effectively implicate China when the U.S. has been attempting to reduce tensions. “Provoking the Iranians, provoking the Chinese, and putting upward pressure on oil are all things Biden doesn’t want to do,” said Brew.
Norge Siste Nytt, Norge Overskrifter
Similar News:Du kan også lese nyheter som ligner på denne som vi har samlet inn fra andre nyhetskilder.
Blinken walks back support for Israel-Hamas 'cease-fire' as Israel retaliates against Hamas invasionThe now-deleted post, which appeared on Blinken's X account late Sunday, described a conversation Blinken reportedly had with the Turkish Foreign Minister.
Les mer »
Israel-Hamas conflict live updates: Israel declares war as death toll in Israel, Gaza passes 900Israeli forces responded to unprecedented attacks by Hamas militants from Gaza. Hezbollah said it attacked Israeli targets near the Lebanon border.
Les mer »