U.S. Christian majority could fade in coming decades, models find

If current trends continue, Christians could make up less than half of the population — and as little as a third — in 50 years. (via The Washington Post)

said Conrad Hackett, associate director of research and senior demographer at Pew Research Center. “Still the greatest amount of change in the U.S., we think currently and in the future, will come from switching,” he said.Researchers stressed that the report contained projections that are based on data and mathematical models, and are not predictions of the future.

One reason for the decline in the proportion of Christians and the growth among the nones in the models is age. While Christians have more children than nones, they also skew older. Pew estimates that the average Christian in the United States is 43, which is 10 years older than the average none. The current report takes advantage of the amount of data collected about the U.S. religious landscape. Researchers also looked at intergenerational transmission for the first time, Kramer said.

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