An interview Hong Kong broker CLSA conducted with a SARS expert has been widely circulated. It’s a rare upbeat assessment that defied consensus. The outcome is instructive for many sheep-like market forecasters, writes jgfarb
Investment bank CLSA on Feb. 4 hosted a conference call for clients with John Nicholls, a clinical professor in pathology at the University of Hong Kong and expert on coronaviruses. During the discussion, he said the mortality rate from the novel coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan, China, makes it more comparable to a severe cold than other deadly viruses, such as SARS.
Nicholls added that because viruses do not like sunlight, high temperatures or humidity, he thought its spread would slow by springtime. “My personal view is that this will be a bad cold and it will all be over by May,” according to an unofficial and unauthorised accounting of the call by an anonymous listener that has been widely circulated.
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